WPC's Short Range Public Discussion (2024)

Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product

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Short Range Forecast DiscussionNWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD304 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024Valid 00Z Thu Aug 22 2024 - 00Z Sat Aug 24 2024...Record heat continues into the end of the week across the SouthernPlains......Record cold develops across California Friday into Saturday......Active monsoonal showers for the Southwest into the Southern Rockies......Showery weather on tap for Florida into the coastal Southeast andacross northern New England...The mid to upper level flow is expected to remain highly amplified acrossthe Lower 48 over the next two days, comprised of a deep upper low movingslowly across New England into the Canadian Maritimes, another strongclosed low dropping south along the Pacific Northwest coast and theseemingly ever present closed upper high across the Southern Plains. Thismid to upper level pattern will be setting the stage for some bigtemperatures contrasts across the CONUS over the next few days.The persistent closed upper high over the Southern Plains will keep thedangerous heatwave going across the Southern Plains as the week ends theweekend begins. The recent batch of record high temperatures over theSouthern Plains will continue over the next two days with numerous recordhighs possible from southeast New Mexico into large portions of Texas. High temperatures across this region will be in the 100 to 110 degreerange producing widespread areas that will experience major to extremeheat risks over the next two days. Excessive Heat warnings and heatadvisories are currently in effect across large portions of the SouthernPlains, affecting nearly 25 million people.In contrast to the heat, both the eastern U.S. and western U.S. will seebelow average temperatures over the next two days. For the east, an areaof high pressure will stretch from the Mississippi Valley to much of theeastern seaboard, except for the coastal Southeast and Florida andnorthern New England. This will produce below average temperatures anddry conditions, although temperatures will begin to moderate back towardseasonal norms by this weekend. The exceptions to the dry weather acrossthe eastern half of the nation will be across Florida into the coastalSoutheast and over northern New England. A stationary front is expectedto lie across north central Florida through the end of this week and intothis weekend, supporting showery conditions for Florida into the coastalSoutheast. Showery conditions also likely across northern New Englandnear the aforementioned strong closed upper low moving slowly eastwardacross this region over the next two days.While the below average temperatures will be waning across the east overthe next few days, the magnitude of below average temperatures will beincreasing across much of the west to the west of the Rockies. This is inassociation with the above mentioned strong closed low moving southwardalong the Pacific Northwest coast. This closed low will help push astrong cold front inland from the eastern Pacific into the PacificNorthwest on Thursday-Friday and southward into California and the GreatBasin Friday and Saturday. Much below average temperatures likely acrossthese areas Thursday, Friday and continuing into this weekend. There isthe potential for record cold afternoon high temperatures across largeportions of California on Friday, continuing into Saturday.Between the Pacific Northwest closed upper low and the closed upper highover the Southern Plains, above average monsoonal moisture values will betransported northeastward between these two circulations, bringing thepotential for widespread scattered monsoonal shower and thunderstorms forportions of the Southwest, Great Basin and Southern Rockies. Locally heavyrains across these areas will also pose the risk of flash floods,especially in areas of steep terrain and in slot canyon regions.OravecGraphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php